{"id":633,"date":"2019-02-01T16:51:52","date_gmt":"2019-02-01T21:51:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/?p=633"},"modified":"2019-02-01T16:51:52","modified_gmt":"2019-02-01T21:51:52","slug":"emerging-market-bonds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/emerging-market-bonds\/","title":{"rendered":"Emerging Market Bonds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The year 2018 was a difficult one for many of the countries classified as emerging markets. The Fed\u2019s policy of continuous interest rate hikes combined with a sudden emergence of new geopolitical risks has caused many investors to pull their capital out of the region. Turkey was the center of attention back in August when the Turkish lira lost 50% of its value against the USD in a matter of days. The situation posed a significant risk of potentially escalating into a domino effect that could\u2019ve resulted in US capital being pulled out of other peripheral countries as well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since then the moderation of US inflation and the pressure President Trump put on the Fed has drastically changed the dollar\u2019s expected interest rate trajectory. As the growth of the US base interest rate decreases so does the capital drain capacity of the US bond market, causing the US dollar to mildly decline as well as almost immediately strengthening the currencies of emerging markets. The one to benefit the most from this outcome was likely the Ankaran government.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Turkey has been a key element in the panic surrounding emerging markets and the lira\u2019s weakening forced the Central Bank of Turkey to gradually raise its own base interest rates to 24%. In the end this series of measures did accomplish its intended goal of halting the lira\u2019s descent, however, the Turkish economy had already suffered a severe blow by the time it did. The 20% inflation rate has drastically reduced Turkey\u2019s retail trade and the country\u2019s GDP was also bound to decline over 2019 according to the World Bank\u2019s forecasts at the time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Turkey\u2019s outlook has drastically improved since then, in large part due to the changes in US interest rate policy. One of the root causes for their problems was their exposure to the USD. Given the unpredictability of the lira, over the past several decades Turkey has been issuing its treasury notes denominated in US dollars to make them more attractive to US banks and investors. That policy made the country extremely sensitive to the effects of US monetary policy and the consequences of that vulnerability were felts strongly when large a large sum of US dollars flowed out of the country last year. This has left Turkey\u2019s dollar reserves depleted, raising real concerns over their ability to repay outstanding dollar claims. One of the things that helped them through this potential crisis was Qatar\u2019s openness to provide them with US dollars by means of a currency swap deal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Erdogan\u2019s cabinet has made it clear that they intend to reduce their exposure to the US dollar to avoid incidents like the one in August 2018 in the future. They did so by negotiating another credit swap deal, this time with the European Central Bank (ECB). Turkey\u2019s treasury has previously been releasing long term dollar based bonds at a 7.68% interest. According to their stats 40% of its buyers were American, 27% were Turkish and 20% were from the United Kingdom. The European Union surprisingly only accounts for a mere 8% of their buyers. The ECB has offered to exchange Turkey\u2019s entire stock of bonds for 4.9% interest rate euro denominated ones. Although he transaction theoretically resulted in the EU exposing itself to the dollar, their reserves are sizable enough to handle it. Meanwhile Turkey was be able to repay its bonds in euros. Since the EU is Turkey\u2019s most notable trade partner, this arrangement is significantly more beneficial to them than having to repay the bonds in US dollars. This move by the ECB not only gives Turkey some breathing room, but also shields them from their vulnerability to the Fed\u2019s interest rate policy. Although this only a small measure, it could help the ECB gain popularity and influence in other emerging markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Forecasts by international financial organizations suggest that 19 out of 24 peripheral countries will be forced to raise their base interest in 2019 even if the Fed doesn\u2019t. If they fail to do so, the lack of interest rate differential compared to US rates would render them unable to provide their economies with sufficient resources to function. That risk makes the EU\u2019s 0% base interest rate much more attractive to these countries, giving it a competitive edge over the dollar due to the interest rate differences. The ECB\u2019s main difficulty is the fact that don\u2019t have a unified bond market with each member country issuing it\u2019s own bonds of varying interest rates. This fact makes euros unsuitable for countries to keep their reserves in, since the risk isn\u2019t uniform and diverges across countries.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The same forecasts say that Turkey, India, China and Nigeria could potentially decrease their base interest rates while Malaysia may stay at its current interest rate level. They also point out that in 2018 the number of dollar denominated bonds declined by 4.3%, the largest decrease since 2006, showcasing how many of these countries successfully decreased their exposure to the USD.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The bonds market is an unusual angle for gaining influence in peripheral countries and the USA has been losing ground on that front in 2018 primarily due to the Fed\u2019s interest rate policy. Even so the USD still continues to be a powerful enough force on the global financial markets for the Fed\u2019s decisions to affect countries on other continents. Turkey\u2019s a good example of how on one hand changes in US monetary policy could potentially bring distant countries to the brink of collapse while on the other hand it also illustrates that for the USA to retain it\u2019s global leading role the Fed will have to work together with The White House.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The year 2018 was a difficult one for many of the countries classified as emerging markets. The Fed\u2019s policy of continuous interest rate hikes combined with a sudden emergence of new geopolitical risks has caused many investors to pull their capital out of the region. Turkey was the center of attention back in August when [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":634,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[117],"tags":[128,95,126,127],"class_list":["post-633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-finance","tag-bonds","tag-currency","tag-federal-reserve","tag-usd"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.0 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Emerging Market Bonds - Earn2Trade Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Turkey has been issuing its treasury note bonds denominated in US dollars to make them more attractive to US banks and investors.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/emerging-market-bonds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Emerging Market Bonds - Earn2Trade Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Turkey has been issuing its treasury note bonds denominated in US dollars to make them more attractive to US banks and investors.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/emerging-market-bonds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Earn2Trade Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/earn2trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-02-01T21:51:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/blog.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"700\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"310\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Lorea Lastiri\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@earn2trade\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@earn2trade\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Lorea Lastiri\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/emerging-market-bonds\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/emerging-market-bonds\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Lorea Lastiri\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/earn2trade.com\/blog\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/758325711109140087f0281be7f11e59\"},\"headline\":\"Emerging Market Bonds\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-02-01T21:51:52+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/emerging-market-bonds\/\"},\"wordCount\":956,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/earn2trade.com\/blog\/es\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/emerging-market-bonds\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/blog.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Bonds\",\"currency\",\"Federal Reserve\",\"USD\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Economy &amp; 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