{"id":780,"date":"2019-05-31T18:45:16","date_gmt":"2019-05-31T22:45:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/?p=780"},"modified":"2021-06-08T09:25:43","modified_gmt":"2021-06-08T13:25:43","slug":"interest-rates-real-estate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/interest-rates-real-estate\/","title":{"rendered":"Interest Rates &#038; The Real Estate Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The specter of interest rate hikes loomed over the US real estate market in 2018. A bevy of articles outlined the possibility of The Fed\u2019s strategy triggering a process or chain reaction similar to the one seen in 2008. While many of them may have been wildly exaggerated, economists and investment analysts pointed out that increasing mortgage interest rates still carries the risk of causing a downwards price spiral on the real estate market.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Fed began its rate hike cycle two years ago and peaked at 2.5% in 2018. The trend only became worrying once it reached 2%, at which point long-term mortgage rates suddenly showed a drastic increase. The process has been going on long enough for us to be able to evaluate it. To do so, we\u2019ll use four indicators related to the real estate market: Building Permits, New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, and the Case-Shiller Index. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>You may also like<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"http:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/the-gold-standard\/\">The Gold Standard<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"http:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/brent-wti-spread\/\">Brent WTI Spread<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"earn2-ads_pt1_desktop\" id=\"earn2-837792451\"><div id=\"earn2-2504026337\" style=\"margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto;text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.earn2trade.com\/trader-career-path?a_pid=E2TLLC&#038;chan=code330&#038;utm_source=Affiliate_track&#038;utm_medium=Top_Banner&#038;utm_campaign=Affiliate_blog&#038;utm_id=TCP_English\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"910x300_earn2trade_ad\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/910x300-Dark-II_EN.png\" alt=\"910x300_earn2trade_ad\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/910x300-Dark-II_EN.png 910w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/910x300-Dark-II_EN-300x99.png 300w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/910x300-Dark-II_EN-150x49.png 150w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/910x300-Dark-II_EN-768x253.png 768w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/910x300-Dark-II_EN-770x254.png 770w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 910px) 100vw, 910px\" class=\"no-lazyload\" width=\"910\" height=\"300\"  style=\"display: inline-block;\" \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-real-estate-indicator-building-permits\">Real Estate Indicator: Building Permits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The number of new building permits shows how optimistic the general population is about the real estate market\u2019s future prospects. Although these permits aren\u2019t necessarily required in every state or region, they\u2019re necessary for the apartment housing complexes that make up most of the market.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"496\" src=\"http:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Building-Permits-1024x496.png\" alt=\"Real Estate Indicator - Building Permits\" class=\"wp-image-20928\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Building-Permits-1024x496.png 1024w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Building-Permits-300x145.png 300w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Building-Permits-150x73.png 150w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Building-Permits-768x372.png 768w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Building-Permits-770x373.png 770w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Building-Permits.png 1050w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/united-states\/building-permits\">tradingeconomics.com<\/a> | US Census Bureau<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The above chart illustrates how much downwards pressure there\u2019s been on the number of requested permits. The months where The Fed\u2019s rhetoric acted the most hawkish are also where these requests were at their lowest. August, for example, was the month when they had the clearest vision of their interest rate trajectory, anticipating that they\u2019d keep raising it until 2019. The added predictability offset the negative effects of the upwards pointing rate hike plan had on demand. This allowed the market to slowly recover over the following 2-3 months as it became evident that The Fed wouldn\u2019t necessarily adhere to the original projection.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although investors were quick to regain confidence, the figures began decreasing again in February. This implies that there may not be a definite correlation between permit requests and interest rate trajectory. This is because The Fed was fundamentally more dovish in this period due to the already high rates.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-real-estate-indicator-new-home-sales\">Real Estate Indicator: New Home Sales<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New Home Sales may have a stronger correlation to The Fed\u2019s policy. There\u2019s some overlap when you compare the chart below with the previous one since they hit bottom at almost the same time. On the other hand, it didn\u2019t experience the second decline and began rising instead.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"496\" src=\"http:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-New-Home-Sales-1024x496.png\" alt=\"Real Estate Indicator - New Home Sales\" class=\"wp-image-20934\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-New-Home-Sales-1024x496.png 1024w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-New-Home-Sales-300x145.png 300w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-New-Home-Sales-150x73.png 150w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-New-Home-Sales-768x372.png 768w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-New-Home-Sales-770x373.png 770w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-New-Home-Sales.png 1050w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/united-states\/new-home-sales\">tradingeconomics.com<\/a> | US Census Bureau<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Looking at the chart, it\u2019s clear that buyers may have become more careful of the rising interest rates. At the same time, they\u2019ve also relatively quickly acclimated to the updated mortgage rates before returning to the market. After the rates stabilized at 2.5%, the long-term prospects of investing in new real estate remained positive.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-real-estate-indicator-existing-home-sales\">Real Estate Indicator: Existing Home Sales<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There\u2019s also been a turning point in the sale of existing homes. We can see a steady downwards trend in 2018, followed by a sudden upwards spike in 2019. It suggests that potential buyers are simply playing the waiting game.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"496\" src=\"http:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Existing-Home-Sales-1024x496.png\" alt=\"Real Estate Indicator - Existing Home Sales\" class=\"wp-image-20939\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Existing-Home-Sales-1024x496.png 1024w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Existing-Home-Sales-300x145.png 300w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Existing-Home-Sales-150x73.png 150w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Existing-Home-Sales-768x372.png 768w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Existing-Home-Sales-770x373.png 770w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/Real-Estate-Indicator-Existing-Home-Sales.png 1050w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/united-states\/existing-home-sales\">tradingeconomics.com<\/a> | National Association of Realtors<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Once it became evident that rates wouldn\u2019t rise further in the short term, they returned in droves. The February 2019 sales were close to what they were at the same time last year when interest rates were at 1%. It seems the predictability of interest rates plays a larger role than the actual interest rate figures themselves.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-s-p-case-schiller-house-price-index\">S&amp;P Case-Schiller House Price Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the previous charts, we saw how demand shrunk, causing the number of permits to decline. Higher financing costs affect construction as well as sales since both are typically funded by loans. As the number of transactions decreases, one would expect prices to follow suit. However, the chart below suggests otherwise. Instead, the chart shows that 2018 was a good year for real estate prices. Prices climbed steadily at first due to the lower demand and despite the interest rates. The trend reversed around October. That was the same time period when we saw a reversal in the other charts as well.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"496\" src=\"http:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/SP-Case-Schiller-House-Price-Index-1024x496.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P Case-Schiller House Price Index\" class=\"wp-image-20944\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/SP-Case-Schiller-House-Price-Index-1024x496.png 1024w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/SP-Case-Schiller-House-Price-Index-300x145.png 300w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/SP-Case-Schiller-House-Price-Index-150x73.png 150w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/SP-Case-Schiller-House-Price-Index-768x372.png 768w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/SP-Case-Schiller-House-Price-Index-770x373.png 770w, https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/SP-Case-Schiller-House-Price-Index.png 1050w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/united-states\/case-shiller-home-price-index\">tradingeconomics.com<\/a> | Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The market attempted to correct the increased financing costs by decreasing prices. In the end, the rate hikes indirectly caused prices to go down and bring buyers back to the market.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This begs the question of just how much an organization in charge of monetary policy trusts the market\u2019s ability to self-regulate. In the end, The Fed\u2019s treatment of consumers as capable and independent decision-makers has paid off. It\u2019s encouraging to see how the real estate market stabilized without any kind of top-down intervention. At the time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly expressed confidence in real estate market participants. In hindsight, his confidence was not misplaced.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The specter of interest rate hikes loomed over the US real estate market in 2018. A bevy of articles outlined the possibility of The Fed\u2019s strategy triggering a process or chain reaction similar to the one seen in 2008. While many of them may have been wildly exaggerated, economists and investment analysts pointed out that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":781,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[117],"tags":[126,120,148],"class_list":["post-780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-finance","tag-federal-reserve","tag-interest-rates","tag-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.6.1 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Real Estate Market and How Interest Rates Affect It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The specter of interest rate hikes loomed over the US real estate market in 2018, with countless articles about the possible consequences.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/interest-rates-real-estate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Real Estate Market and How Interest Rates Affect It\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The specter of interest rate hikes loomed over the US real estate market in 2018, with countless articles about the possible consequences.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/interest-rates-real-estate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Earn2Trade Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/earn2trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-05-31T22:45:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-06-08T13:25:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/blog-8.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"620\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Lorea Lastiri\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@earn2trade\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@earn2trade\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Lorea Lastiri\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/interest-rates-real-estate\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/aky.pbv.mybluehost.me\/interest-rates-real-estate\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Lorea Lastiri\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/earn2trade.com\/blog\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/758325711109140087f0281be7f11e59\"},\"headline\":\"Interest Rates &#038; 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