The US-UK Trade Deal: Post-Brexit Economic Implications

The US-UK trade relationship witnessed a significant transformation post-Brexit. This created the need for a trade deal between the two nations.

With the UK’s new course charted outside the European Union, it is now imperative to forge new economic ties with global partners. 

The US-UK trade deal is a shining example. This article will examine the design of the US-UK trade deal, its application, and advantages.

Background of the Post-Brexit US-UK Trade Deal

Brexit kick-started the UK’s departure from the single market and customs union of the EU. The exit means that the UK is now responsible for signing its own trade agreements and exploring bilateral trade deals with other countries, including the United States.

The UK and the US have a history of strong and close alliances, sharing economic, cultural, and political ties.

Therefore, considering their shared interests and established relationship, the expectation was that the two nations would quickly reach a trade agreement. 

The US-UK Post-Brexit Trade Deal Negotiations During Trump’s Administration

In October 2018, Trump’s administration notified Congress of its plan to negotiate a free trade agreement with the UK.

The US Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), which was still in effect at the time, enabled the expedited consideration of the deal in Congress.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative released its negotiating objectives for the potential trade deal agreement with the UK in 2019.

It underwent several rounds of negotiations with the aim of establishing the right terms and conditions of the trade deal. However, in the end, the efforts didn’t materialize into a conclusive trade deal to pass for approval due to trade policy complexities and differences in priorities.

The US-UK Post-Brexit Trade Deal Negotiations During Biden’s Administration

When President Biden took over office in early 2021, his administration stressed its goal of prioritizing investments in infrastructure and American workers over new trade agreements.

Then the TPA expired, and the pursuit of an FTA with the UK lost its top priority status. 

However, after broad negotiations, the UK signed memorandums of understanding (MOUs) with three US states: Indiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. 

While the MOUs lack enforcement mechanisms and aren’t legally binding, they were a good first step in breaking the deadlock and brought encouragement for possible market cooperation and bilateral investment. 

After a series of discussions, on June 10th, 2021, the US and the UK signed the New Atlantic Charter. The deal intends to promote fair trade between the nations and foster economic advancement. It has also further renewed hopes for a future FTA.   

The “Atlantic Declaration” Between the US and the UK 

In June 2023, the US and the UK signed the “Atlantic Declaration.”  

The declaration includes plans to strengthen the US – UK supply chains, boost mutual industrial investment, and promote innovation and technology advancement.

It is also geared toward removing bureaucracy in data transfers between organizations from both countries. 

What Is the Economic Impact of a US-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA)?

A UK – US Free Trade Agreement can foster economic growth, ease trade, decrease and eliminate regulatory obstacles, and more. 

According to the UK’s Office for National Statistics, the US is the largest individual trading partner of the UK, accounting for 16.3% of its trade. 

With a 2.7% share, the UK is the seventh-largest trade partner of the US.

US Goods and Services Trade with the UK (in billions of dollars)

	2009	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Total	185.9	231.2	240.7	232.9	243.9	269.8	273.0
Exports	98.0	120.2	126.3	124.9	130.9	146.9	147.4
Imports	87.9	111.0	114.4	108.0	112.9	122.9	125.6
Balance	10.1	9.3	11.8	16.9	18.0	24.0	21.8

US Goods Trade with the UK (in billions of dollars)

	2009	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Total	93.2	108.6	114.2	109.5	109.5	127.2	132.3
Exports	45.7	53.9	56.1	55.2	56.3	66.5	69.1
Imports	47.5	54.7	58.1	54.3	53.3	60.7	63.2
Balance	-1.8	-0.8	-2.0	0.9	3.0	5.8	5.9

US Agricultural Trade with the UK (in billions of dollars)

	2009	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Total	1.8	2.5	2.6	2.8	2.6	2.8	2.5
Exports	1.2	1.8	1.8	2.0	1.8	2.0	1.7
Imports	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8
Balance	0.6	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.0	1.1	0.9

US Manufacturing Trade with the UK (in billions of dollars)

	2009	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Total	80.6	92.1	97.7	93.4	90.9	103.0	105.9
Exports	40.3	45.3	48.4	47.6	46.3	53.0	52.2
Imports	40.3	46.8	49.3	45.8	44.6	50.0	51.6
Balance	0.0	-1.5	-0.9	1.9	1.7	3.0	2.6

US Services Trade with the UK (in billions of dollars)

	2009	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Total	92.7	122.6	126.6	123.5	134.3	142.6	140.7
Exports	52.3	66.3	70.2	69.7	74.7	80.4	78.3
Imports	40.4	56.3	56.4	53.8	59.6	62.2	62.3
Balance	11.9	10.1	13.8	15.9	15.0	18.2	16.0

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Takeaway: Will There Be a US-UK Free Trade Deal?

As of August 2023, there is no US – UK Free Trade Deal.

However, recent agreements such as the New Atlantic Charter and the US-UK Atlantic Declaration have further renewed hopes for a potential future sign-off of an FTA.

If this happens, both countries will again benefit from their seamless pre-Brexit trade and economic relationship.